Austin Real Estate Forecasts. Were They Accurate a Year Ago?
Bevo - The University of Texas Mascot
Historically, forecasting Austin/Georgetown real estate sales was predictable – sturdy, strong, and runaway, get out of the way, Bevo charging bull market. Until 2022. Escalated home prices fused with rocketing interest rates engendered a startling suspension. One that continues to surprise fatigued wannabe sellers.
In this current murky climate, real estate prognosticators find themselves in unfamiliar terrain. Will the market’s slide continue unabated? Will 2025 bring stability? Or could the new year offer a pleasant recovery? One thing we know, recent past performance is not indicative of future results.
Framed within this context, allow me to review an example from a year ago quoted within my blog, “Austin’s 2024 Real Estate Market Outlook: Navigating the Uncertainties.” There, I presented a well-known pundit's proposition followed by my thoughts based on experience and observations of Austin’s economy. As we wind down the year, guess who turned out to be wrong and who turned out to be right? Ready? Here you go.
Where Ivy was Right. Where the Pundits Were Wrong.
Where the pundits were wrong: Realtor.com predicted Austin’s home prices would drop 12.2% in 2024. Prices dropped but nothing close to 12.2%.
Where Ivy was right: “My response? Buyers beware. And sellers too. Why? Because such premonitions create a climate of postponement. Buyers may end up thinking, “If prices are coming down 12%, let’s wait. They might even fall 15%. And, as we close the year, buyers are still waiting.
In the duration of that blog and the follow-up one, “Austin’s Housing Market in 2024: Analyzing the Current Landscape and Future Prospects,” I presented numerous reasons why the Austin/Georgetown home prices would not plummet.
Why do I bring this up now? To gloat and thump my chest? Hardly. I do so for this reason: the real estate forecasters are once again staring at their computer screens. Data points galore have been inserted into their software programs and they are about to release their findings – this time with a little more help from AI. As for me, I will not only read their research; I will also interview fellow ICON agents in our city. Afterward, I will phone my buyers who are still waiting for Austin home prices to fall 12.2% and find out how much longer they plan on pausing.
And the results? Stay tuned for my year-end thoughts on where we are heading in 2025. Meanwhile, it is not too late to take advantage of the screaming great deals on new construction from builders needing to remove inventory by year’s end.