Thinking about picking a bottom in Austin’s Real Estate Market?
“Picking a stock market bottom during the past year of mayhem has been like playing a game where nobody wins. Some of the smartest minds on both Wall Street and in Washington have tried numerous times to identify an ultimate low for stocks and have failed – in some cases miserably.” Jeff Cox, CNBC
Who would have guessed that the stock market bottomed in June? Not last month. June of last year.
What bearing does this have on our real estate market? Everything. Weekly, I engage would be buyers, and want to be buyer’s agents, who are waiting for Austin’s market to bottom out. Buy low. Sell high. I get it.
My reply? “When will you know we’ve hit rock bottom?”
I’m not trying to be sarcastic. Instead, I’ve seen this movie before – in 2008. Weekly, multiple clients would text, “Ivy, you sent me this property. I’d like to see it.” After showing it, they would confidently state, “It’s overpriced. They’ll drop it another ten grand next week. Ivy, you know prices are heading lower.” Never happened.
Recently, I quoted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s most recent statement addressing America’s housing. “We now see housing putting in a bottom, and maybe moving up a bit. We’re watching the situation carefully.”
My current position is this: do we have any fresh information supporting the Chairman’s claim? We do: two new data points backing him up (as if he needs it).
On Tuesday, Case-Shiller reported the following:
National house prices went negative on a year-over year basis for the first time since 2012.
Prices also rose month-over-month 1.3% between March and April. It marks three straight month-over-month gains.
Home prices have increased nationally by 2.3% this year. To delve a little deeper, the full report can be read here:
The graph below reveals home price advance/decline since 1990. The far-right bars reflect the last three months.
Also on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported, “U.S. new home sales rose 12.2% to an annual rate of 763,000 in May.” Sales increased for the third month in a row.
MarketWatch reported, “The strength in new home sales was across the nation, led by the Northeast and West. Overall, new home sales have been higher as home builders are one of the few players offering inventory for home shoppers…The jump exceeded expectations on Wall Street. Economists had forecast new home sales to total 675,000 in May…The data from April was revised significantly. New home sales rose to a revised 680,000 compared with the initial estimate of 4.1% increase to 683,000.”
The Big Picture, as reported by MarketWatch? “The housing market may be stuck in a rut over the lack of inventory and high mortgage rates, but home builders are thriving as buyers flock to new construction where they are finding more options.”
What I’m about to write is not a plug. Instead, I want you to know what I bring to the table.
In all of Austin, less than a hundred of us are “Certified New Home Co-Brokers.” As graduates of the program, we are trained to navigate buyers through the new construction gauntlet. Additionally, I am now a “Certified Real Estate Negotiator.” Since 2018, 28.7% of all my sales have been in new construction.
To understand more, please check out https://www.ivystantonhomes.com/new-home-construction